2. Deild · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 69% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The 2. Deild average is 69%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts Fjardabyggd / Leiknir at 59%, the draw at 20% and Hvíti Riddarinn at 21%, from expected goals of 2.27 and 1.31.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fjardabyggd / Leiknir have 14 in 17 this season (8 of 9 at home), Hvíti Riddarinn 8 in 17 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 76% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 2.27 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir and 1.31 for Hvíti Riddarinn. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 17 | 82% | 65% | 65% |
| Hvíti Riddarinn | 17 | 47% | 47% | 59% |
More: Fjardabyggd / Leiknir season stats · Hvíti Riddarinn season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.