Superliga · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Superliga average is 59%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Midtjylland at 45%, the draw at 26% and Randers FC at 29%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 1.14.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 56% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 44% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53% | 59% | +6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FC Midtjylland 1.48, draw 4.20, Randers FC 6.00.
The league sets the starting point. Superliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Midtjylland have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Randers FC 1 in 4 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 62% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.47 for FC Midtjylland and 1.14 for Randers FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 3 | 67% | 33% | 100% |
| Randers FC | 4 | 25% | 25% | 25% |
More: FC Midtjylland season stats · Randers FC season stats · Superliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.