DFB Pokal · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | no pick |
The result model puts Eintracht Braunschweig at 49%, the draw at 25% and Union Berlin at 27%, from expected goals of 1.64 and 1.14.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Eintracht Braunschweig have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Union Berlin 21 in 34 (9 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 34 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.64 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.14 for Union Berlin. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Braunschweig | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Union Berlin | 34 | 62% | 47% | 62% |
More: Eintracht Braunschweig season stats · Union Berlin season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.