Meistaradeildin · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Meistaradeildin average is 69%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts EB / Streymur at 36%, the draw at 29% and AB at 35%, from expected goals of 1.1 and 1.07.
The league sets the starting point. Meistaradeildin has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. EB / Streymur have 11 in 19 this season (4 of 10 at home), AB 10 in 18 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.1 for EB / Streymur and 1.07 for AB. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB / Streymur | 19 | 58% | 21% | 68% |
| AB | 18 | 56% | 33% | 56% |
More: EB / Streymur season stats · AB season stats · Meistaradeildin table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.