Liga Pro · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 21:30. Our rating makes this 32% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Pro average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 68% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts Delfin SC at 32%, the draw at 35% and Aucas at 32%, from expected goals of 0.8 and 0.8.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Delfin SC have 7 in 25 this season (2 of 12 at home), Aucas 10 in 24 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 33% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 22%, from expected goals of 0.8 for Delfin SC and 0.8 for Aucas. Folding in 30% of that view gives 32%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Delfin SC season stats · Aucas season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.