Super League · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Super League average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Chongqing Tongliang Long at 46%, the draw at 25% and Dalian Zhixing at 30%, from expected goals of 1.6 and 1.24.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chongqing Tongliang Long have 8 in 23 this season (4 of 11 at home), Dalian Zhixing 14 in 22 (7 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.6 for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.24 for Dalian Zhixing. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chongqing Tongliang Long | 23 | 35% | 26% | 52% |
| Dalian Zhixing | 22 | 64% | 45% | 64% |
More: Chongqing Tongliang Long season stats · Dalian Zhixing season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.