Premier League · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 33% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier League average is 36%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 59% | No |
The result model puts Ceramica Cleopatra at 46%, the draw at 28% and Olympic El Qanah at 26%, from expected goals of 1.35 and 0.95.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 36% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ceramica Cleopatra have 6 in 26 this season (4 of 13 at home), Olympic El Qanah 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 30% and 36%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 33%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.35 for Ceramica Cleopatra and 0.95 for Olympic El Qanah. Folding in 30% of that view gives 35%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceramica Cleopatra | 26 | 23% | 15% | 42% |
| Olympic El Qanah | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Ceramica Cleopatra season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.