Meistaradeildin · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 17:15. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Meistaradeildin average is 69%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts B68 at 51%, the draw at 24% and Skála at 26%, from expected goals of 1.73 and 1.16.
The league sets the starting point. Meistaradeildin has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. B68 have 10 in 19 this season (6 of 9 at home), Skála 12 in 19 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.73 for B68 and 1.16 for Skála. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: B68 season stats · Skála season stats · Meistaradeildin table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.