Superliga · Sunday, 23 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 57% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts AC Horsens at 41%, the draw at 26% and Lyngby at 33%, from expected goals of 1.48 and 1.31.
The league sets the starting point. Superliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AC Horsens have 2 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Lyngby 2 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.48 for AC Horsens and 1.31 for Lyngby. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Horsens | 4 | 50% | 0% | 75% |
| Lyngby | 4 | 50% | 50% | 75% |
More: AC Horsens season stats · Lyngby season stats · Superliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.