Superliga · Sunday, 23 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Superliga average is 59%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts AC Horsens at 41%, the draw at 26% and Lyngby at 34%, from expected goals of 1.43 and 1.28.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 52% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 48% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 53% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: AC Horsens 2.60, draw 3.40, Lyngby 2.60.
The league sets the starting point. Superliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AC Horsens have 2 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Lyngby 2 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 45% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.43 for AC Horsens and 1.28 for Lyngby. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Horsens | 4 | 50% | 0% | 75% |
| Lyngby | 4 | 50% | 50% | 75% |
More: AC Horsens season stats · Lyngby season stats · Superliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.