Serie C · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 36% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie C average is 35%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 64% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Volta Redonda at 48%, the draw at 30% and Floresta at 23%, from expected goals of 1.24 and 0.76.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Volta Redonda have 8 in 26 this season (4 of 13 at home), Floresta 9 in 17 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 33% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 32%, from expected goals of 1.24 for Volta Redonda and 0.76 for Floresta. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volta Redonda | 26 | 31% | 12% | 35% |
| Floresta | 17 | 53% | 12% | 65% |
More: Volta Redonda season stats · Floresta season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.