1. Deild · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Deild average is 70%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 34% | Yes |
The result model puts Vestri at 42%, the draw at 23% and Leiknir R. at 34%, from expected goals of 1.71 and 1.52.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vestri have 10 in 18 this season (6 of 9 at home), Leiknir R. 11 in 18 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.71 for Vestri and 1.52 for Leiknir R.. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vestri | 18 | 56% | 39% | 56% |
| Leiknir R. | 18 | 61% | 22% | 50% |
More: Vestri season stats · Leiknir R. season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.