Liga Pro · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 22:30. Our rating makes this 37% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Pro average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Tecnico Universitario at 38%, the draw at 29% and Guayaquil City FC at 33%, from expected goals of 1.14 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tecnico Universitario have 11 in 25 this season (5 of 12 at home), Guayaquil City FC 8 in 25 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.14 for Tecnico Universitario and 1.05 for Guayaquil City FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecnico Universitario | 25 | 44% | 8% | 36% |
| Guayaquil City FC | 25 | 32% | 20% | 44% |
More: Tecnico Universitario season stats · Guayaquil City FC season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.