DFB Pokal · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | no pick |
The result model puts SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 46%, the draw at 24% and Arminia Bielefeld at 30%, from expected goals of 1.68 and 1.3.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Arminia Bielefeld 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 55% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.68 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 1.3 for Arminia Bielefeld. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 2 | 100% | 0% | 50% |
More: Arminia Bielefeld season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.