Serie C · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 23:30. Our rating makes this 27% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie C average is 35%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 73% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 90% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Santa Cruz at 33%, the draw at 37% and Caxias at 30%, from expected goals of 0.75 and 0.71.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Santa Cruz have 4 in 17 this season (0 of 8 at home), Caxias 6 in 17 (2 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 26% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 31%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 18%, from expected goals of 0.75 for Santa Cruz and 0.71 for Caxias. Folding in 30% of that view gives 27%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz | 17 | 24% | 12% | 41% |
| Caxias | 17 | 35% | 0% | 53% |
More: Santa Cruz season stats · Caxias season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.