Super League · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Super League average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Qingdao Youth Island at 49%, the draw at 25% and Shandong Luneng at 26%, from expected goals of 1.58 and 1.08.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Qingdao Youth Island have 8 in 23 this season (3 of 12 at home), Shandong Luneng 17 in 23 (7 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.58 for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.08 for Shandong Luneng. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao Youth Island | 23 | 35% | 26% | 61% |
| Shandong Luneng | 23 | 74% | 43% | 74% |
More: Qingdao Youth Island season stats · Shandong Luneng season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.