DFB Pokal · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | no pick |
The result model puts MSV Duisburg at 50%, the draw at 23% and SV Elversberg at 28%, from expected goals of 1.88 and 1.35.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. MSV Duisburg have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), SV Elversberg 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 63% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.88 for MSV Duisburg and 1.35 for SV Elversberg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSV Duisburg | 2 | 100% | 50% | 50% |
| SV Elversberg | 0 | — | — | — |
More: MSV Duisburg season stats · SV Elversberg season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.