Promotion League · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 75% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Promotion League average is 69%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 72% | 28% | Yes |
The result model puts Luzern II at 34%, the draw at 22% and Bulle at 44%, from expected goals of 1.7 and 1.96.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Luzern II have 2 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Bulle 2 in 2 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 73%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 84% and 78%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 79%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 78%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 1.7 for Luzern II and 1.96 for Bulle. Folding in 30% of that view gives 75%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Luzern II season stats · Bulle season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.