Liga Pro · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 01:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Liga Pro average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Leones del Norte at 26%, the draw at 25% and Independiente del Valle at 50%, from expected goals of 1.1 and 1.62.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Leones del Norte have 8 in 25 this season (2 of 12 at home), Independiente del Valle 16 in 25 (8 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 35% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.1 for Leones del Norte and 1.62 for Independiente del Valle. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones del Norte | 25 | 32% | 8% | 44% |
| Independiente del Valle | 25 | 64% | 44% | 48% |
More: Leones del Norte season stats · Independiente del Valle season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.