NIFL Premiership · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The NIFL Premiership average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Larne at 44%, the draw at 26% and Limavady United at 31%, from expected goals of 1.48 and 1.2.
The league sets the starting point. NIFL Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Larne have 0 in 1 this season, Limavady United 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 48% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.48 for Larne and 1.2 for Limavady United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larne | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Limavady United | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
More: Larne season stats · NIFL Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.