2. Deild · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 68% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Deild average is 69%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 70% | 30% | Yes |
The result model puts KFG at 30%, the draw at 21% and Kormákur / Hvöt at 48%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 2.01.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. KFG have 14 in 17 this season (8 of 9 at home), Kormákur / Hvöt 10 in 17 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 76% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 1.57 for KFG and 2.01 for Kormákur / Hvöt. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KFG | 17 | 82% | 71% | 76% |
| Kormákur / Hvöt | 17 | 59% | 47% | 65% |
More: KFG season stats · Kormákur / Hvöt season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.