Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 37% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier League average is 36%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts Ghazl El Mehalla at 27%, the draw at 34% and Pyramids FC at 39%, from expected goals of 0.74 and 0.95.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 36% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ghazl El Mehalla have 8 in 33 this season (2 of 17 at home), Pyramids FC 13 in 26 (7 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 26% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 35%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 24%, from expected goals of 0.74 for Ghazl El Mehalla and 0.95 for Pyramids FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghazl El Mehalla | 33 | 24% | 18% | 39% |
| Pyramids FC | 26 | 50% | 23% | 54% |
More: Ghazl El Mehalla season stats · Pyramids FC season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.