Toppserien (W) · Saturday, 22 August 2026. Final score 5–1 (half-time 3–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 65% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Fortuna Ålesund W at 60%, the draw at 20% and Haugesund W at 19%, from expected goals of 2.27 and 1.23.
The league sets the starting point. Toppserien (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fortuna Ålesund W have 8 in 12 this season (3 of 6 at home), Haugesund W 10 in 13 (4 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 2.27 for Fortuna Ålesund W and 1.23 for Haugesund W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Ålesund W | 12 | 67% | 42% | 58% |
| Haugesund W | 13 | 77% | 38% | 69% |
More: Fortuna Ålesund W season stats · Haugesund W season stats · Toppserien (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.