DFB Pokal · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | no pick |
The result model puts FC Viktoria Köln at 31%, the draw at 20% and 1. FC Nürnberg at 49%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 2.25.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Viktoria Köln have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), 1. FC Nürnberg 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 54% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 77%, from expected goals of 1.79 for FC Viktoria Köln and 2.25 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Viktoria Köln | 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 2 | 100% | 50% | 50% |
More: FC Viktoria Köln season stats · 1. FC Nürnberg season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.