DFB Pokal · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | no pick |
The result model puts FC Saarbrücken at 46%, the draw at 22% and Hertha BSC at 32%, from expected goals of 1.87 and 1.51.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Saarbrücken have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Hertha BSC 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 47% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 1.87 for FC Saarbrücken and 1.51 for Hertha BSC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Saarbrücken | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Hertha BSC | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: FC Saarbrücken season stats · Hertha BSC season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.