DFB Pokal · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | no pick |
The result model puts Energie Cottbus at 56%, the draw at 21% and FC Augsburg at 23%, from expected goals of 2.03 and 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Energie Cottbus have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), FC Augsburg 21 in 34 (12 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.03 for Energie Cottbus and 1.22 for FC Augsburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energie Cottbus | 2 | 100% | 50% | 50% |
| FC Augsburg | 34 | 62% | 41% | 62% |
More: Energie Cottbus season stats · FC Augsburg season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.