Serie C · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 38% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie C average is 35%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Botafogo PB at 42%, the draw at 27% and Guarani Campinas at 31%, from expected goals of 1.32 and 1.1.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Botafogo PB have 7 in 17 this season (3 of 8 at home), Guarani Campinas 8 in 24 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 37% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 35%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.32 for Botafogo PB and 1.1 for Guarani Campinas. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo PB | 17 | 41% | 18% | 47% |
| Guarani Campinas | 24 | 33% | 25% | 50% |
More: Botafogo PB season stats · Guarani Campinas season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.