Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 35% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier League average is 36%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 65% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Asyut Petrol at 35%, the draw at 29% and Petrojet at 36%, from expected goals of 1.1 and 1.11.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 36% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Asyut Petrol have 0 in 0 this season, Petrojet 15 in 33 (7 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.1 for Asyut Petrol and 1.11 for Petrojet. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 35%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asyut Petrol | 0 | — | — | — |
| Petrojet | 33 | 45% | 21% | 61% |
More: Petrojet season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.