Promotion League · Saturday, 22 August 2026. Final score 3–1 (half-time 1–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 69% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Amical Saint-Prex at 51%, the draw at 22% and YF Juventus at 28%, from expected goals of 2.09 and 1.51.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Amical Saint-Prex have 2 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), YF Juventus 2 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 70%, from expected goals of 2.09 for Amical Saint-Prex and 1.51 for YF Juventus. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amical Saint-Prex | 3 | 67% | 33% | 33% |
| YF Juventus | 3 | 67% | 33% | 33% |
More: Amical Saint-Prex season stats · YF Juventus season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.