Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 37% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier League average is 36%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 60% | No |
The result model puts AL Masry at 41%, the draw at 29% and Smouha SC at 30%, from expected goals of 1.22 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 36% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AL Masry have 11 in 26 this season (8 of 13 at home), Smouha SC 7 in 26 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 36%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.22 for AL Masry and 1 for Smouha SC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: AL Masry season stats · Smouha SC season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.