DFB Pokal · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | no pick |
The result model puts Waldhof Mannheim at 44%, the draw at 25% and 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 32%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 1.3.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Waldhof Mannheim have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 68% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.57 for Waldhof Mannheim and 1.3 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldhof Mannheim | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Waldhof Mannheim season stats · 1. FC Kaiserslautern season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.