DFB Pokal · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | no pick |
The result model puts SC St. Tönis at 46%, the draw at 21% and Eintracht Frankfurt at 33%, from expected goals of 2.08 and 1.75.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SC St. Tönis have 0 in 0 this season, Eintracht Frankfurt 23 in 34 (12 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 2.08 for SC St. Tönis and 1.75 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC St. Tönis | 0 | — | — | — |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 68% | 53% | 74% |
More: Eintracht Frankfurt season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.