DFB Pokal · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | no pick |
The result model puts Preußen Münster at 42%, the draw at 26% and Karlsruher SC at 32%, from expected goals of 1.42 and 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Preußen Münster have 0 in 0 this season, Karlsruher SC 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 62% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.42 for Preußen Münster and 1.22 for Karlsruher SC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preußen Münster | 0 | — | — | — |
| Karlsruher SC | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
More: Preußen Münster season stats · Karlsruher SC season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.