Premier League · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 31% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier League average is 36%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 69% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 87% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 59% | No |
The result model puts Abu Qair Semad at 27%, the draw at 32% and National Bank of Egypt at 42%, from expected goals of 0.8 and 1.08.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 36% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Abu Qair Semad have 0 in 0 this season, National Bank of Egypt 12 in 33 (5 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 29%, from expected goals of 0.8 for Abu Qair Semad and 1.08 for National Bank of Egypt. Folding in 30% of that view gives 34%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 31%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abu Qair Semad | 0 | — | — | — |
| National Bank of Egypt | 33 | 36% | 18% | 52% |
More: National Bank of Egypt season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.