Europa League · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Europa League average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | no pick |
The result model puts Trabzonspor at 52%, the draw at 22% and Ferencvarosi TC at 26%, from expected goals of 1.99 and 1.38.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Trabzonspor have 0 in 1 this season, Ferencvarosi TC 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 56% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 1.99 for Trabzonspor and 1.38 for Ferencvarosi TC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | 1 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Ferencvarosi TC | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.