Conference League · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Conference League average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | no pick |
The result model puts Shamrock Rovers at 39%, the draw at 27% and KuPS at 34%, from expected goals of 1.3 and 1.21.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Shamrock Rovers have 12 in 27 this season (6 of 13 at home), KuPS 9 in 20 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.3 for Shamrock Rovers and 1.21 for KuPS. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers | 27 | 44% | 26% | 56% |
| KuPS | 20 | 45% | 25% | 65% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.