Copa Sudamericana · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 37% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Sudamericana average is 39%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Santa Fe at 43%, the draw at 29% and River Plate at 27%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 0.9.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Sudamericana has produced over 2.5 goals in 39% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Santa Fe have 13 in 26 this season (8 of 13 at home), River Plate 6 in 25 (1 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 29%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Santa Fe and 0.9 for River Plate. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Fe | 26 | 50% | 27% | 73% |
| River Plate | 25 | 24% | 16% | 28% |
More: Copa Sudamericana table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.