Europa League · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Europa League average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | no pick |
The result model puts OFI at 35%, the draw at 27% and CSKA Sofia at 38%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 1.29.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. OFI have 22 in 32 this season (10 of 16 at home), CSKA Sofia 4 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 32 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 59% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.21 for OFI and 1.29 for CSKA Sofia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFI | 32 | 69% | 34% | 47% |
| CSKA Sofia | 5 | 80% | 40% | 40% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.