Conference League · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Conference League average is 54%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts Motherwell at 54%, the draw at 24% and SC Freiburg at 23%, from expected goals of 1.74 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Motherwell have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), SC Freiburg 22 in 34 (10 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 34 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 41% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.74 for Motherwell and 1.05 for SC Freiburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| SC Freiburg | 34 | 65% | 38% | 62% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.