Conference League · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Conference League average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | no pick |
The result model puts Lincoln Red Imps FC at 39%, the draw at 27% and Larne at 34%, from expected goals of 1.28 and 1.2.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lincoln Red Imps FC have 0 in 0 this season, Larne 0 in 1 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 53% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.28 for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 1.2 for Larne. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln Red Imps FC | 0 | — | — | — |
| Larne | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.