Europa League · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Europa League average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | no pick |
The result model puts Lech Poznan at 50%, the draw at 23% and FC Thun at 27%, from expected goals of 1.84 and 1.28.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lech Poznan have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 2 at home), FC Thun 3 in 3 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 65% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.84 for Lech Poznan and 1.28 for FC Thun. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 3 | 67% | 0% | 33% |
| FC Thun | 3 | 100% | 100% | 67% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.