Copa Libertadores · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 23:00. Our rating makes this 40% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Libertadores average is 45%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts LDU de Quito at 44%, the draw at 30% and Mirassol at 26%, from expected goals of 1.19 and 0.85.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Libertadores has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. LDU de Quito have 6 in 24 this season (3 of 12 at home), Mirassol 13 in 22 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 35% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 1.19 for LDU de Quito and 0.85 for Mirassol. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDU de Quito | 24 | 25% | 4% | 33% |
| Mirassol | 22 | 59% | 32% | 68% |
More: Copa Libertadores table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.