Europa League · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Europa League average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | no pick |
The result model puts Kairat Almaty at 65%, the draw at 22% and Anderlecht at 13%, from expected goals of 1.85 and 0.68.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kairat Almaty have 12 in 21 this season (6 of 10 at home), Anderlecht 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 21 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 54% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.85 for Kairat Almaty and 0.68 for Anderlecht. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kairat Almaty | 21 | 57% | 33% | 57% |
| Anderlecht | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.