Europa League · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Europa League average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | no pick |
The result model puts Jagiellonia at 32%, the draw at 25% and Saburtalo at 43%, from expected goals of 1.24 and 1.49.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Jagiellonia have 1 in 3 this season (0 of 2 at home), Saburtalo 10 in 20 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 20 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 61% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.24 for Jagiellonia and 1.49 for Saburtalo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 3 | 33% | 0% | 33% |
| Saburtalo | 20 | 50% | 20% | 55% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.