Conference League · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Conference League average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts HNK Hajduk Split at 49%, the draw at 23% and Raków Częstochowa at 28%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 1.28.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. HNK Hajduk Split have 3 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Raków Częstochowa 3 in 3 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 47% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.76 for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.28 for Raków Częstochowa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 100% | 33% | 100% |
| Raków Częstochowa | 3 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.