Conference League · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Conference League average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | no pick |
The result model puts Getafe at 44%, the draw at 25% and FK Partizan at 31%, from expected goals of 1.58 and 1.29.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Getafe have 1 in 1 this season, FK Partizan 3 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 28% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.58 for Getafe and 1.29 for FK Partizan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| FK Partizan | 4 | 75% | 50% | 75% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.