Europa League · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Europa League average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | no pick |
The result model puts Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 48%, the draw at 28% and Lillestrom at 24%, from expected goals of 1.32 and 0.84.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Egnatia Rrogozhinë have 13 in 39 this season (6 of 19 at home), Lillestrom 8 in 17 (2 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.32 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 0.84 for Lillestrom. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 39 | 33% | 21% | 33% |
| Lillestrom | 17 | 47% | 29% | 41% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.