Copa Sudamericana · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 40% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Sudamericana average is 38%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Atletico Torque at 33%, the draw at 28% and Tigre at 39%, from expected goals of 1.14 and 1.27.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Sudamericana has produced over 2.5 goals in 38% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atletico Torque have 12 in 23 this season (7 of 11 at home), Tigre 5 in 21 (3 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 32%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 39%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.14 for Atletico Torque and 1.27 for Tigre. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Torque | 23 | 52% | 30% | 61% |
| Tigre | 21 | 24% | 19% | 48% |
More: Copa Sudamericana table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.