Vikingur Olafsiik v Thróttur Vogar — prediction, stats and goal analysis

2. Deild · Wednesday, 19 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Deild average is 69%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Vikingur Olafsiik at 61%, the draw at 19% and Thróttur Vogar at 20%, from expected goals of 2.3 and 1.26.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Vikingur Olafsiik have 10 in 17 this season (5 of 8 at home), Thróttur Vogar 11 in 17 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 67%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.

Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 2.3 for Vikingur Olafsiik and 1.26 for Thróttur Vogar. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Vikingur Olafsiik season stats · Thróttur Vogar season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.