Copa Sudamericana · Wednesday, 19 August 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Copa Sudamericana average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts Sao Paulo at 50%, the draw at 26% and Bolívar at 24%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Sudamericana has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sao Paulo have 9 in 22 this season (4 of 10 at home), Bolívar 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.55 for Sao Paulo and 1 for Bolívar. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 22 | 41% | 14% | 64% |
| Bolívar | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Copa Sudamericana table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.