Champions League · Wednesday, 19 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Champions League average is 57%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | no pick |
The result model puts NEC Nijmegen at 28%, the draw at 23% and Bodo/Glimt at 49%, from expected goals of 1.34 and 1.85.
The league sets the starting point. Champions League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. NEC Nijmegen have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Bodo/Glimt 12 in 17 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 17 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 72% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.34 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.85 for Bodo/Glimt. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| Bodo/Glimt | 17 | 71% | 41% | 29% |
More: Champions League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.